Gubbio 1-0 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.59
6+ Goals
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+5.3pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.1pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.35/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/0.69
+11% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +66%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Lucchese
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
18.03.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 2-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
20.11.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 0-2 HT 0-1 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
01.05.2022 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
19.03.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 2-2 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
13.11.2021 Gubbio Gubbio 0-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
1-0
AWAY Lucchese
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gubbio edged past Lucchese 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gubbio as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Gubbio had 45% of the ball to Lucchese's 55%, shots finished 11-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gubbio had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Gubbio and 0.33 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Lucchese?

Gubbio 1-0 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 47%, draw 25%, Lucchese 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gubbio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gubbio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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