Denbigh Town 2-4 Holywell — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.32
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
Over 2.5
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.38
No
42%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+1.9pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.3pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Denbigh Town EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Holywell EU Bookmakers 57%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
2.00/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.48/0.64
+30% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +107%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Denbigh Town
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Holywell
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
4 Corners 8
28.09.2024 Holywell Holywell 0-2 HT 0-1 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town GALFAW
16.03.2024 Holywell Holywell 3-0 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town GALFAW
18.08.2023 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 1-5 HT 0-3 Holywell Holywell GALFAW
POST-MATCH Denbigh Town vs Holywell
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holywell got the better of Denbigh Town 4-2 away from home. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Holywell as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Holywell led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Denbigh Town and 2.67 for Holywell.

What was the final score of Denbigh Town vs Holywell?

Denbigh Town 2-4 Holywell in the Wales - FAW Championship on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Denbigh Town vs Holywell?

Before kick-off our model rated an Holywell win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Denbigh Town 28%, draw 23%, Holywell 48%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Holywell), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Holywell) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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