Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 Jan 2025

Samsunspor
2-1 HT 1-0
Trabzonspor
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2024/2025

Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 26% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.13
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
11%
12.55
X/1
15%
5.2
X/2
13%
6.59
X/X
11%
4.89
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
13%
4.39
2/X
8%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.3pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.1pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Samsunspor v Trabzonspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Trabzonspor EU Bookmakers 34%
+11% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -18%
1.46/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.60
-1% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
388 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.9 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samsunspor
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Trabzonspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
2.16 xG 0.78
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
239 Passes 417
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 17
8 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.05.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 3-1 HT 3-1 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor TSL
11.01.2024 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-1 HT 2-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
21.12.2022 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 3-0 HT 2-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
29.07.2018 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 3-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor HAZ
27.03.2016 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 2-3 HT 1-3 Samsunspor Samsunspor HAZ
15.01.2012 Trabzonspor Trabzonspor 4-0 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL

Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samsunspor
2-1
AWAY Trabzonspor
2.34 xG 0.56
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
180 Passes 405
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor nicked a narrow win over Trabzonspor 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Samsunspor found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Samsunspor had 35% of the ball to Trabzonspor's 65%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 2.34 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Samsunspor's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trabzonspor led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Samsunspor and 2.50 for Trabzonspor.

What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

Samsunspor 2-1 Trabzonspor in the Turkey - Super League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Samsunspor 38%, draw 30%, Trabzonspor 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samsunspor), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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