Everton 2-4 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.14
6+ Goals
9%
20.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.57
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
7%
5.35
X/2
14%
6.24
X/X
11%
4.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
30.5
2/2
17%
4.54
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 11% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.4pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Everton EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.41/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.02
-17% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
22.8 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Everton
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Brentford
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.27 xG 1.46
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
314 Passes 388
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 1-0 Everton Everton İNP
23.11.2024 Everton Everton 0-0 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
27.04.2024 Everton Everton 1-0 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
23.09.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 1-1 Everton Everton İNP
11.03.2023 Everton Everton 1-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
27.08.2022 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 0-1 Everton Everton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Everton
2-4
AWAY Brentford
0.89 xG 2.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
286 Passes 355
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Everton vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford got the better of Everton 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 37% — and on the day Brentford made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Everton had 45% of the ball to Brentford's 55%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.89 to 2.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Everton had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Everton and 0.50 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Everton vs Brentford?

Everton 2-4 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Everton vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Everton win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Everton 38%, draw 24%, Brentford 37%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Everton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Everton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
4 Jan 2026
15:30 Leeds United vs Manchester United Analysis →
18:00 Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace Analysis →
18:00 Tottenham vs Sunderland Analysis →
18:15 Fulham vs Liverpool Analysis →
20:30 Manchester City vs Chelsea Analysis →