Everton 1-0 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.87
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
12%
5.69
X/2
15%
5.33
X/X
12%
4.67
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
11%
3.53
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.3pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Everton EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.35/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.20
-32% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
21.0 Crosses 19.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Everton
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Brentford
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 1.71
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
297 Passes 389
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 1-1 Everton Everton İNP
11.03.2023 Everton Everton 1-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
27.08.2022 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 0-1 Everton Everton İNP
15.05.2022 Everton Everton 2-3 HT 2-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
05.02.2022 Everton Everton 4-1 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford FAK
28.11.2021 Brentford Brentford 1-0 HT 1-0 Everton Everton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Everton
1-0
AWAY Brentford
0.86 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
324 Passes 358
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Everton vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Everton edged past Brentford 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Everton found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Everton had 47% of the ball to Brentford's 53%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 0.86 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Everton had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Everton and 1.17 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Everton vs Brentford?

Everton 1-0 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Everton vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Everton win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Everton 38%, draw 27%, Brentford 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Everton), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Everton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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