Manchester United 1-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

Manchester United
1-1 HT 0-0
Burnley
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Manchester United vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.31
2-3 Goals
38%
2.23
4-5 Goals
28%
2.44
6+ Goals
14%
4.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.81
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
5%
12.25
X/X
13%
7.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.15
2/2
9%
7.67
2/X
4%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.15 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.1pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.8pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -5%
2.06/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.53
-6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +22%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
474 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
19.4 Crosses 16.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Manchester United vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Burnley
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.00 xG 0.88
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
430 Passes 304
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
21.12.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 2-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNLK
08.02.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
30.12.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 3-1 HT 3-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
18.04.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 3-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
12.01.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP

Manchester United 1-1 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
1-1
AWAY Burnley
2.71 xG 2.06
48% Ball Possession 52%
27 Total Shots 16
10 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
323 Passes 355
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
51 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United and Burnley couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Manchester United carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Manchester United had 48% of the ball to Burnley's 52%, shots finished 27-16, expected goals 2.71 to 2.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Manchester United and 0.50 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Burnley?

Manchester United 1-1 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 55%, draw 24%, Burnley 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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