Wolverhampton 2-1 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 28% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
15%
4.5
X/2
14%
7.83
X/X
11%
5.42
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
11%
5.39
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.23/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.15
-27% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 72%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
20.1 Crosses 26.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolverhampton
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Luton Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.59 xG 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
263 Passes 332
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
7 Box Touches 41
6 Crosses 44
2 Yellow Cards 0
23.09.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
05.01.2013 Luton Town Luton Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton FAK
03.03.2007 Luton Town Luton Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNCL
26.08.2006 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 1-0 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
13.01.2006 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 2-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
10.09.2005 Luton Town Luton Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolverhampton
2-1
AWAY Luton Town
1.21 xG 0.59
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
535 Passes 362
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolverhampton vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolverhampton nicked a narrow win over Luton Town 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Wolverhampton as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Wolverhampton had 58% of the ball to Luton Town's 42%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.21 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolverhampton had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.00 for Luton Town.

What was the final score of Wolverhampton vs Luton Town?

Wolverhampton 2-1 Luton Town in the England - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolverhampton vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolverhampton win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Wolverhampton 45%, draw 25%, Luton Town 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolverhampton) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wolverhampton) ✗ Under 2.5
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