Newport County 3-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Mar 2025

Newport County
3-1 HT 3-0
Gillingham
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Newport County vs Gillingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.12
6+ Goals
8%
20.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.55 — our 34% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
5.43
1/2
9%
28.0
1/X
5%
14.55
X/1
11%
6.84
X/2
13%
4.61
X/X
12%
4.18
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.97
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
28%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.0pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.4pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Gillingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.17/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.49
-20% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -42%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
230 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
19.3 Crosses 22.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Newport County vs Gillingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Gillingham
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.21 xG 1.77
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
176 Passes 259
56% Pass Accuracy 65%
18 Box Touches 33
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2024 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
17.02.2024 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
29.04.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.11.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
13.08.2019 Gillingham Gillingham 2-2 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İNLK

Newport County 3-1 Gillingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
3-1
AWAY Gillingham
1.40 xG 1.44
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 9
232 Passes 336
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County saw off Gillingham 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 39%) promised a tight game; Newport County found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newport County had 43% of the ball to Gillingham's 57%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.40 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Newport County and 0.50 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Gillingham?

Newport County 3-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Newport County 36%, draw 25%, Gillingham 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
4 Mar 2025
22:45 Accrington Stanley vs Milton Keynes Dons Analysis →
22:45 Notts County vs Barrow Analysis →
22:45 Carlisle United vs Walsall Analysis →
22:45 Port Vale vs Harrogate Town Analysis →
22:45 Colchester vs Chesterfield Analysis →
22:45 Bromley vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →