Gillingham 0-2 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Oct 2024

Gillingham
0-2 HT 0-2
Newport County
📅22/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Gillingham vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.59
6+ Goals
11%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 28% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.4
X/1
22%
3.99
X/2
10%
9.69
X/X
11%
4.82
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
9%
7.65
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.4pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gillingham v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.59/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.36
-24% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
284 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 61%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
26.1 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Gillingham vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Newport County
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.80 xG 1.36
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
234 Passes 185
62% Pass Accuracy 57%
28 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
28.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
29.04.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
19.11.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
13.08.2019 Gillingham Gillingham 2-2 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İNLK

Gillingham 0-2 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
0-2
AWAY Newport County
1.60 xG 0.45
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 0
385 Passes 127
79% Pass Accuracy 53%
55 Box Touches 8
54 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County saw off Gillingham 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Gillingham at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Gillingham had 69% of the ball to Newport County's 31%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 1.60 to 0.45 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gillingham.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Gillingham and 1.80 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Newport County?

Gillingham 0-2 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 22/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 51%, draw 25%, Newport County 24%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gillingham) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
22 Oct 2024
00:00 Fleetwood Town vs Crewe Alexandra Analysis →
21:45 Salford City vs Swindon Town Analysis →
21:45 Barrow vs Notts County Analysis →
21:45 Chesterfield vs Colchester Analysis →
21:45 Milton Keynes Dons vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
21:45 AFC Wimbledon vs Morecambe Analysis →