Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Golden Arrows — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 4 Mar 2026

📅04/03/2026 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.25
Draw
16%
5.28
Away
6%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.53
No
59%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.57
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
26%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
10.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
53%
1/2
2%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
2%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
2%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
76%
+1.8pp
16%
Draw
16%
-0.1pp
5%
Away Win
7%
-1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
36%
+5.2pp
59%
BTTS No
64%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Golden Arrows EU Bookmakers 9%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.62/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.00
+54% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -18%
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
448 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 74%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
12.8 Crosses 12.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Golden Arrows
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.92 xG 0.40
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
543 Passes 153
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2025 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows 1-0 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
05.03.2025 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows 1-1 HT 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
02.02.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 1-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
19.10.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 5-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFLK
08.05.2024 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns GAFPSL
15.08.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 4-0 HT 3-0 Golden Arrows Golden Arrows GAFPSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mamelodi Sundowns
2-1
AWAY Golden Arrows
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns nicked a narrow win over Golden Arrows 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mamelodi Sundowns as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mamelodi Sundowns had 59% of the ball to Golden Arrows's 41%, shots finished 11-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.33 for Golden Arrows.

What was the final score of Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows?

Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Golden Arrows in the South Afrika - Premier League on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Golden Arrows?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mamelodi Sundowns win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Mamelodi Sundowns 78%, draw 16%, Golden Arrows 5%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mamelodi Sundowns) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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