Alianza Lima 1-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.34
6+ Goals
10%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.23
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
14%
6.66
X/2
18%
4.5
X/X
11%
4.12
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.01
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 48%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
0.99/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.60
-53% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +88% / -12%
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
253 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 81%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
20.4 Crosses 14.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 4.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.08 xG 0.45
21% Ball Possession 79%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
134 Passes 710
66% Pass Accuracy 92%
19 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima and Fluminense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 21% of the ball to Fluminense's 79%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.08 to 0.45.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Fluminense?

Alianza Lima 1-1 Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 31%, draw 26%, Fluminense 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fluminense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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