Botafogo vs Junior Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Botafogo v Junior — Team-Based Signals
Botafogo 1-3 Junior — Actual Match Statistics
Junior saw off Botafogo 3-1 away from home.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Botafogo at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Botafogo had 58% of the ball to Junior's 42%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 0.73 to 2.48.
What was the final score of Botafogo vs Junior?
Botafogo 1-3 Junior in the Copa Libertadores on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Junior?
Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 55%, draw 24%, Junior 21%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.