Colo Colo 1-0 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.66
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.8
X/1
15%
4.04
X/2
6%
7.85
X/X
10%
4.07
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
14%
6.61
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
49%
+0.8pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.7pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colo Colo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 26%
-59% / -59% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.61/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.37
+7% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +40%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
342 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
38.6 Crosses 11.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colo Colo
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 2
21.04.2011 Colo Colo Colo Colo 2-3 HT 2-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno LKU
18.02.2011 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 5-2 HT 2-1 Colo Colo Colo Colo LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colo Colo
1-0
AWAY Cerro Porteno
0.34 xG 0.54
67% Ball Possession 33%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
401 Passes 155
81% Pass Accuracy 63%
11 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Colo Colo vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colo Colo edged past Cerro Porteno 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Colo Colo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Colo Colo had 67% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 33%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.34 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Colo Colo and 4.00 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Colo Colo vs Cerro Porteno?

Colo Colo 1-0 Cerro Porteno in the Copa Libertadores on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colo Colo vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colo Colo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Colo Colo 50%, draw 23%, Cerro Porteno 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colo Colo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Colo Colo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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