Nacional de Football 2-0 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.82
No
63%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.12
6+ Goals
7%
19.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 39% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
18%
4.83
X/2
9%
6.16
X/X
11%
4.18
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.61
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Nacional de Football win — 45%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
📶 Pattern strength Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
51%
-14.3pp
63%
BTTS No
49%
+14.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.97/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.11
-15% / +130% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
22.4 Crosses 21.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Libertad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
06.04.2012 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football LKU
17.02.2012 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-2 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad LKU
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football saw off Libertad 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 2.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Libertad?

Nacional de Football 2-0 Libertad in the Copa Libertadores on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 45%, draw 27%, Libertad 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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