San Lorenzo 1-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.24
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
5.52
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.95
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.05
X/1
13%
5.16
X/2
8%
5.47
X/X
13%
3.52
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
19%
4.3
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
San Lorenzo win — 36%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
📶 Pattern strength Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.5pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.84/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.33
-11% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +41%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
19.7 Crosses 11.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Lorenzo
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.49 xG 0.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
309 Passes 306
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
6 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.05.2019 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo LKU
03.04.2019 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Lorenzo
1-1
AWAY Palmeiras
1.11 xG 0.90
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
249 Passes 310
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 24
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Lorenzo vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Lorenzo and Palmeiras shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, San Lorenzo had 45% of the ball to Palmeiras's 55%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.11 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for San Lorenzo and 0.50 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of San Lorenzo vs Palmeiras?

San Lorenzo 1-1 Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Lorenzo vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split San Lorenzo 36%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/29/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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