MVV Maastricht 1-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Apr 2025

MVV Maastricht
1-2 HT 1-0
Excelsior
📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
51%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
3.14
Over 2.5
44%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.41
No
56%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
7.51
2-3 Goals
38%
2.27
4-5 Goals
20%
2.33
6+ Goals
9%
4.04
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.51 — our 33% vs market 8.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.84
1/2
6%
16.85
1/X
5%
16.45
X/1
10%
12.0
X/2
17%
4.58
X/X
14%
8.33
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
28%
1.84
2/X
4%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+6.5pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.4pp
50%
Away Win
61%
-10.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
28%
+27.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
72%
-27.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
67%
-22.4pp
56%
BTTS No
33%
+22.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 66%
+5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.33/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.09
+4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +23%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
295 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 83%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
15.9 Crosses 23.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Excelsior
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.26 xG 2.13
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
326 Passes 468
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.10.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 3-2 HT 1-2 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
19.10.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 5-1 HT 3-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOK
15.04.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
10.12.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
20.02.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
19.01.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 2-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOK

MVV Maastricht 1-2 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-2
AWAY Excelsior
0.56 xG 1.40
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
272 Passes 465
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior squeezed past MVV Maastricht 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 39% of the ball to Excelsior's 61%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.56 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for MVV Maastricht and 2.17 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?

MVV Maastricht 1-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 25%, draw 24%, Excelsior 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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