Excelsior 3-2 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 18 Oct 2024

📅18/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.53
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
15%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.9
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.35
X/1
18%
4.06
X/2
7%
11.3
X/X
10%
6.8
2/1 EV+ ✓
10%
19.5
2/2
10%
7.6
2/X
6%
15.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.1pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +21%
2.36/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.61
+50% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.4 Crosses 15.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-2D-1L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.95 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
444 Passes 354
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 5-1 HT 3-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOK
15.04.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
10.12.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 2-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
20.02.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
19.01.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 2-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOK
16.10.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 2-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
3-2
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.86 xG 1.10
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
459 Passes 194
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
30 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior nicked a narrow win over MVV Maastricht 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Excelsior had 67% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 33%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.86 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Excelsior and 1.00 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs MVV Maastricht?

Excelsior 3-2 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 18/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 57%, draw 22%, MVV Maastricht 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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