BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Auda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
51%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.9
No
45%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.4pp
51%
Away Win
58%
-7.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.1pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Auda EU Bookmakers 62%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
0.75/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.91
-44% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +35%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
236 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
16.2 Crosses 17.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Auda
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.68 xG 1.61
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
216 Passes 495
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-2 HT 1-0 Auda Auda LET
04.08.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
28.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-3 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LET
17.04.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.11.2023 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
27.08.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-2 Auda Auda LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
2-1
AWAY Auda
1.73 xG 1.31
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
149 Passes 479
61% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Auda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils squeezed past Auda 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Auda at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 30% of the ball to Auda's 70%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.73 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auda led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.67 for Auda.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Auda?

BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Auda in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Auda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 21%, draw 28%, Auda 51%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Auda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Auda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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