IFK Mariehamn 1-1 TPS Turku — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 Apr 2026

📅04/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.29
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.35
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
18%
4.36
X/2
9%
8.59
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.5
2/2
12%
6.67
2/X
5%
14.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.5 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-3.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 26%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
2.41/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.72
+23% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.3 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-5D-0L
AWAY TPS Turku
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2026 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FLK
28.05.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 2-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİK
14.09.2020 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.08.2020 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-0 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
02.02.2020 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİK
23.09.2018 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 1-2 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1-1
AWAY TPS Turku
0.75 xG 0.79
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 10
342 Passes 354
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn and TPS Turku shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was IFK Mariehamn at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 49% of the ball to TPS Turku's 51%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.75 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.17 for TPS Turku.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku?

IFK Mariehamn 1-1 TPS Turku in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Mariehamn win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 49%, draw 25%, TPS Turku 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Mariehamn) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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