Deportivo Madryn 1-1 Atletico Rafaela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - National Primera Liga, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.41
Over 2.5
31%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.44
No
66%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.7pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.5pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+1.1pp
69%
Under 2.5
67%
+1.7pp
31%
Over 2.5
33%
-1.7pp
34%
BTTS Yes
37%
-2.9pp
66%
BTTS No
63%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Madryn EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Rafaela EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -6%
1.14/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.42
-13% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Madryn
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico Rafaela
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 18
5 Corners 7
04.09.2023 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn ARJPBN
22.04.2023 Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela ARJPBN
29.03.2022 Atletico Rafaela Atletico Rafaela 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn ARJPBN
POST-MATCH Deportivo Madryn vs Atletico Rafaela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Madryn and Atletico Rafaela shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Madryn at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (69%) landed while no to both teams scoring (66%) missed.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atletico Rafaela led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Deportivo Madryn and 0.67 for Atletico Rafaela.

What was the final score of Deportivo Madryn vs Atletico Rafaela?

Deportivo Madryn 1-1 Atletico Rafaela in the Argentina - National Primera Liga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Madryn vs Atletico Rafaela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Madryn win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Madryn 47%, draw 32%, Atletico Rafaela 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo Madryn), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Madryn) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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