Connahs Quay 1-2 The New Saints — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Welsh Cup, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.91
Draw
27%
4.62
Away
51%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.51
Over 2.5
65%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.76
No
43%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
28%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
14%
+8.0pp
27%
Draw
18%
+8.1pp
52%
Away Win
68%
-16.1pp
35%
Under 2.5
36%
-1.5pp
65%
Over 2.5
64%
+1.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
53%
+4.0pp
43%
BTTS No
47%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY The New Saints EU Bookmakers 72%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / +18%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
191 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 465 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
1W-0D-5L
AWAY The New Saints
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
31.12.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 2-1 HT 2-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
30.10.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-2 HT 0-0 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
28.04.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 2-1 HT 2-1 The New Saints The New Saints GALWK
21.04.2024 The New Saints The New Saints 2-0 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
08.03.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-5 HT 0-4 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
31.12.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 0-4 HT 0-3 The New Saints The New Saints GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
1-2
AWAY The New Saints
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs The New Saints
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The New Saints edged past Connahs Quay 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had The New Saints as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 50% of the ball to The New Saints's 50%, shots finished 13-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, The New Saints led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Connahs Quay and 2.67 for The New Saints.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs The New Saints?

Connahs Quay 1-2 The New Saints in the Wales - Welsh Cup on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs The New Saints?

Before kick-off our model rated an The New Saints win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 22%, draw 27%, The New Saints 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The New Saints), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (The New Saints) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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