Grobina 1-0 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+7.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-6.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 46%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.16/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.10
+69% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 71%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
19.5 Crosses 18.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
2W-0D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
1.51 xG 1.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
293 Passes 259
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.03.2025 Grobina Grobina 3-2 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
14.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 2-0 Grobina Grobina LET
27.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.05.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-3 HT 0-3 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
1-0
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.11 xG 0.45
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
223 Passes 313
66% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grobina edged past BFC Daugavpils 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Grobina found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grobina had 45% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 55%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.11 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Grobina and 2.20 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils?

Grobina 1-0 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grobina win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Grobina 39%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Grobina) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Grobina) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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