Grobina 3-2 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
31%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-3.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.11/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.05
+70% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
343 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 74%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.7
19.8 Crosses 17.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
1W-0D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
1.55 xG 2.04
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 268
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 2-0 Grobina Grobina LET
27.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
07.05.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-3 HT 0-3 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
3-2
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.36 xG 1.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
275 Passes 224
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
14 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grobina nicked a narrow win over BFC Daugavpils 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Grobina found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Grobina had 53% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 47%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.36 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grobina and 2.25 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils?

Grobina 3-2 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated an BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Grobina 37%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 38%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ BTTS Yes
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