Alverca 1-0 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 4 May 2025

Alverca
1-0 HT 1-0
Paços De Ferreira
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Alverca vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.86
Over
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.11
2-3
37%
1.75
4-5
25%
3.48
6+
11%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Alverca win — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Alverca v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 21%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
2.51/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.66
+80% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
344 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
15.0 Crosses 20.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Alverca vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.33 xG 1.46
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 Passes 360
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.12.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-3 HT 1-2 Alverca Alverca POR2
22.02.2004 Alverca Alverca 2-1 HT 2-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
28.09.2003 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-3 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR
20.01.2002 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 1-0 Alverca Alverca POR
19.08.2001 Alverca Alverca 1-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
20.05.2001 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR

Alverca 1-0 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
1-0
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.65 xG 0.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 302
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca nicked a narrow win over Paços De Ferreira 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Alverca had 49% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 51%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.65 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alverca had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Alverca and 1.00 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Paços De Ferreira?

Alverca 1-0 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Alverca 55%, draw 25%, Paços De Ferreira 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
4 May 2025
13:00 Felgueiras 1932 vs Benfica II Analysis →
16:00 Mafra vs Leixoes Analysis →
17:30 Maritimo vs CD Feirense Analysis →
20:00 Tondela vs Chaves Analysis →