Mafra 1-2 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.6
Over
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.46
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
18%
4.43
6+
8%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.4pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.9pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +2%
1.26/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.99
-7% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
255 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.7 Crosses 20.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leixoes
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
300 Passes 276
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
17.03.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 1-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
04.11.2023 Mafra Mafra 0-1 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
30.04.2023 Leixoes Leixoes 0-2 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
14.11.2022 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
07.05.2022 Mafra Mafra 0-2 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
1-2
AWAY Leixoes
1.53 xG 1.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
326 Passes 188
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes edged past Mafra 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Leixoes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 58% of the ball to Leixoes's 42%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.53 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mafra and 1.17 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Leixoes?

Mafra 1-2 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mafra 37%, draw 26%, Leixoes 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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