Mafra vs Leixoes Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mafra v Leixoes — Team-Based Signals
Mafra vs Leixoes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Leixoes
POR2
0-2
HT 0-1
Mafra
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
Leixoes
POR2
0-2
HT 0-0
Leixoes
POR2
Mafra 1-2 Leixoes — Actual Match Statistics
Leixoes edged past Mafra 2-1 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Leixoes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Mafra had 58% of the ball to Leixoes's 42%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.53 to 1.44.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leixoes led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mafra and 1.17 for Leixoes.
What was the final score of Mafra vs Leixoes?
Mafra 1-2 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mafra vs Leixoes?
Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mafra 37%, draw 26%, Leixoes 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.