Tondela vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Chaves — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 4-2
Chaves
POR
2-1
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
HAZ
2-0
HT 1-0
Chaves
POR
1-1
HT 1-1
Tondela
POR
Tondela 2-1 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics
Tondela edged past Chaves 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Tondela had 43% of the ball to Chaves's 57%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 3.24 to 1.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tondela's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tondela and 1.33 for Chaves.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Chaves?
Tondela 2-1 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Chaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tondela 42%, draw 28%, Chaves 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.