Karabağ 2-1 Turan Tovuz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
15%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.06
No
47%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
32%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-7.9pp
30%
Draw
22%
+8.1pp
15%
Away Win
16%
-0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
44%
+8.2pp
47%
BTTS No
56%
-8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +9%
2.19/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/0.94
+14% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +70%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Turan Tovuz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
01.02.2026 Karabağ Karabağ 1-0 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.10.2025 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-2 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
28.03.2025 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-4 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
26.01.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 1-2 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
01.11.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-0 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
24.08.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ squeezed past Turan Tovuz 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Karabağ and 0.83 for Turan Tovuz.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Karabağ 2-1 Turan Tovuz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Turan Tovuz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 55%, draw 30%, Turan Tovuz 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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