Turan Tovuz 1-2 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
56%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
5%
X/2
22%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
23%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
56%
Away Win
50%
+6.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.5pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 54%
+8% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.24/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.96/1.07
+16% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / -15%
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
195 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Turan Tovuz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Karabağ
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
28.03.2025 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-4 HT 1-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
26.01.2025 Karabağ Karabağ 1-2 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
01.11.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-0 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
24.08.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.05.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 4-3 HT 1-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
17.03.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-3 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ nicked a narrow win over Turan Tovuz 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Turan Tovuz and 2.00 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ?

Turan Tovuz 1-2 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Turan Tovuz vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Turan Tovuz 18%, draw 26%, Karabağ 56%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
17 Oct 2025
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