Shamakhi 1-4 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 17 Oct 2025

📅17/10/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
3%
1/X
10%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
54%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
19%
Away Win
21%
-1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 23%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.85/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.90
+12% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
401 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamakhi
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
20.04.2025 Shamakhi Shamakhi 2-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
17.02.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 1-1 HT 0-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
30.11.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
20.09.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
21.04.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 1-1 HT 1-1 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
17.02.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 3-2 HT 1-1 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
POST-MATCH Shamakhi vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kapaz ran out comfortable winners over Shamakhi 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Shamakhi at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Shamakhi and 1.17 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Shamakhi vs Kapaz?

Shamakhi 1-4 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 17/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamakhi vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shamakhi win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Shamakhi 55%, draw 26%, Kapaz 19%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Shamakhi) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Shamakhi) ✓ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
17 Oct 2025
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