Sporting CP 5-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.29
Draw
13%
5.15
Away
10%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.54
6+ Goals
12%
6.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
27%
X/2
3%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Sporting CP win — 77%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
73%
+4.1pp
13%
Draw
16%
-2.9pp
9%
Away Win
11%
-1.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.5pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
2.35/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/2.00
+17% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
437 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 77%
34.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.1 Crosses 13.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.04 xG 1.10
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
426 Passes 295
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.01.2026 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes PRLK
23.12.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-4 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
17.05.2025 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.01.2025 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-4 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.04.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
09.12.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
5-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
4.57 xG 0.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
419 Passes 378
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 24
6 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP cruised past Vitoria Guimaraes 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sporting CP had 52% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 48%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 4.57 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Sporting CP and 1.67 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Sporting CP 5-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 77%, draw 13%, Vitoria Guimaraes 9%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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