Monastir 0-1 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.54
Over 2.5
35%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.51
No
61%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
40%
2.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
15%
4.82
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.22 — our 40% vs market 36.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
5%
X/X
20%
2/1
14%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.9pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.5pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.4pp
65%
Under 2.5
61%
+4.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
39%
-4.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
36%
+3.1pp
61%
BTTS No
64%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monastir EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +12%
1.25/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/0.80
-13% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +53%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monastir
2W-4D-0L
AWAY ES Metlaoui
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
5 Corners 3
05.11.2025 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 2-2 HT 1-0 Monastir Monastir TUN1
11.05.2025 Monastir Monastir 1-1 HT 1-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
04.01.2025 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-0 HT 0-0 Monastir Monastir TUN1
21.04.2024 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 2-2 HT 0-0 Monastir Monastir TNUSK
27.12.2023 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 0-3 HT 0-2 Monastir Monastir TUN1B
24.09.2023 Monastir Monastir 3-2 HT 2-2 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1B
POST-MATCH Monastir vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Metlaoui nicked a narrow win over Monastir 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Monastir at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monastir had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Monastir and 1.17 for ES Metlaoui.

What was the final score of Monastir vs ES Metlaoui?

Monastir 0-1 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monastir vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monastir win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Monastir 51%, draw 31%, ES Metlaoui 18%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Monastir) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monastir) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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