Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
9%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 30% vs market 19.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
19.4
X/1
19%
3.52
X/2
6%
15.7
X/X
12%
6.59
2/1
11%
22.7
2/2
9%
12.55
2/X
7%
20.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-12.4pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.3pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.7pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shamrock Rovers EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -5%
1.70/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.17
+3% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +29%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
25.9 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shamrock Rovers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Dundalk
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.51
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
390 Passes 240
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 1-0 HT 0-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
16.02.2024 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-1 HT 0-1 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
25.08.2023 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
23.07.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 1-0 HT 1-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRK
30.06.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 2-0 HT 0-0 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers İRL
02.06.2023 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 2-0 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shamrock Rovers
1-0
AWAY Dundalk
0.75 xG 0.47
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
429 Passes 239
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shamrock Rovers edged past Dundalk 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shamrock Rovers as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Shamrock Rovers had 61% of the ball to Dundalk's 39%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.75 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dundalk led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.83 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?

Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shamrock Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Shamrock Rovers 56%, draw 24%, Dundalk 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shamrock Rovers), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shamrock Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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