Rapid Wien 1-0 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 31% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.05
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
10%
13.0
X/1
11%
5.92
X/2
11%
5.24
X/X
15%
4.61
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
15%
3.41
2/X
5%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.8pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.26/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.43
-28% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
284 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 71%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
16.9 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rapid Wien
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 1.22
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
292 Passes 263
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AUK
24.04.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
18.02.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
24.09.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
28.05.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 3-2 HT 2-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rapid Wien
1-0
AWAY Sturm Graz
2.98 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
353 Passes 237
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
39 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rapid Wien nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Rapid Wien made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Rapid Wien had 57% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 43%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.98 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rapid Wien's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rapid Wien and 1.67 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Rapid Wien 1-0 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rapid Wien win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Rapid Wien 35%, draw 30%, Sturm Graz 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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