Kristiansund BK 2-1 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
34%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.6
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
12%
6.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.39
1/2
6%
19.95
1/X
10%
13.85
X/1
16%
8.45
X/2
11%
4.54
X/X
10%
6.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
34.0
2/2
16%
2.31
2/X
6%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
26%
+14.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
34%
Away Win
51%
-17.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.8pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kristiansund BK EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 56%
+15% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.33/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.07
+27% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +63%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
251 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
17.6 Crosses 26.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kristiansund BK
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lilleström
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.37
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
217 Passes 366
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 2-3 HT 0-1 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
28.08.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 1-1 HT 1-0 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
03.07.2022 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK 1-3 HT 1-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
16.10.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 0-0 HT 0-0 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
30.05.2021 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK 1-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
22.09.2019 Lilleström Lilleström 1-1 HT 1-0 Kristiansund BK Kristiansund BK NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kristiansund BK
2-1
AWAY Lilleström
0.75 xG 1.68
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
283 Passes 570
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kristiansund BK vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kristiansund BK edged past Lilleström 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kristiansund BK as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Kristiansund BK had 36% of the ball to Lilleström's 64%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.75 to 1.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lilleström.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kristiansund BK had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.17 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Kristiansund BK vs Lilleström?

Kristiansund BK 2-1 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kristiansund BK vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kristiansund BK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kristiansund BK 41%, draw 25%, Lilleström 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kristiansund BK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kristiansund BK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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