Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Sandefjord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.89
Over 2.5
56%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.39
No
45%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.96
2-3 Goals
39%
2.18
4-5 Goals
26%
2.47
6+ Goals
13%
4.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.4
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
19%
4.97
X/2
7%
8.31
X/X
7%
6.47
2/1
6%
19.55
2/2
16%
4.86
2/X
10%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
31%
+12.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
69%
-12.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.5pp
45%
BTTS No
32%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 31%
-11% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -19%
1.57/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.81
-15% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
24.4 Crosses 17.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sarpsborg 08
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sandefjord
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.96 xG 1.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
359 Passes 286
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.05.2024 Sandefjord Sandefjord 4-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
27.01.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-0 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
06.08.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 5-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
02.07.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 6-1 HT 3-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
02.10.2022 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
03.07.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 4-3 HT 2-2 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarpsborg 08
2-1
AWAY Sandefjord
2.08 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
356 Passes 395
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
35 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sarpsborg 08 edged past Sandefjord 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sarpsborg 08 as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Sarpsborg 08 had 48% of the ball to Sandefjord's 52%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.08 to 0.82 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sarpsborg 08's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sarpsborg 08 and 2.33 for Sandefjord.

What was the final score of Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?

Sarpsborg 08 2-1 Sandefjord in the Norway - Eliteserien on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarpsborg 08 vs Sandefjord?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarpsborg 08 win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sarpsborg 08 47%, draw 23%, Sandefjord 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sarpsborg 08), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sarpsborg 08) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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