Sandefjord 4-1 Sarpsborg 08 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
11.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.01
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
14%
4.96
X/2
11%
6.68
X/X
13%
4.75
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.57
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.7pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sandefjord EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarpsborg 08 EU Bookmakers 33%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +31%
1.43/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.37
+24% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
18.5 Crosses 19.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sandefjord
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
1.06 xG 2.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 5
334 Passes 328
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 34
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.01.2024 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 2-0 HT 2-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord HAZ
06.08.2023 Sandefjord Sandefjord 5-1 HT 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
02.07.2023 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 6-1 HT 3-1 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
02.10.2022 Sandefjord Sandefjord 1-1 HT 1-0 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 NOR
03.07.2022 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 4-3 HT 2-2 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
29.08.2021 Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 5-0 HT 4-0 Sandefjord Sandefjord NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sandefjord
4-1
AWAY Sarpsborg 08
2.80 xG 1.32
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
230 Passes 452
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
34 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sandefjord ran out comfortable winners over Sarpsborg 08 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sandefjord as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Sandefjord had 36% of the ball to Sarpsborg 08's 64%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 2.80 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sarpsborg 08 led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sandefjord and 3.17 for Sarpsborg 08.

What was the final score of Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08?

Sandefjord 4-1 Sarpsborg 08 in the Norway - Eliteserien on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sandefjord win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sandefjord 41%, draw 27%, Sarpsborg 08 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sandefjord), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sandefjord) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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