New Mexico United 0-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.65
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.65 — our 29% vs market 22.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+9.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-9.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.0pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 40%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -9%
1.40/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.60
+18% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
15.7 Crosses 18.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Louisville City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.90 xG 1.75
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
286 Passes 342
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
03.10.2021 Louisville City Louisville City 3-1 HT 2-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
0-1
AWAY Louisville City
0.48 xG 2.03
66% Ball Possession 34%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
475 Passes 204
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
17 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ New Mexico United vs Louisville City
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Louisville City edged past New Mexico United 1-0 away from home in the USL Championship on 4 Aug 2024.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 44% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 66% of the ball to Louisville City's 34%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.48 to 2.03.

Across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours are even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for New Mexico United and 1.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Louisville City?

New Mexico United 0-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 39%, draw 27%, Louisville City 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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