Ilves Tampere 2-2 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 4 Aug 2025

Ilves Tampere
2-2 HT 1-1
Gnistan
📅04/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2025

Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.37
Draw
16%
4.81
Away
15%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.98
2-3 Goals
37%
2.23
4-5 Goals
24%
2.51
6+ Goals
16%
4.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1.62
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.95
X/1
16%
4.2
X/2
4%
14.7
X/X
6%
8.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
17.75
2/2
7%
10.55
2/X
4%
19.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.75 — our 7% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
68%
+1.1pp
16%
Draw
17%
-1.4pp
15%
Away Win
14%
+0.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+10.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-10.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.8pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ilves Tampere v Gnistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.83/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.68
+3% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 81%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
15.6 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Gnistan
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
2.10 xG 1.35
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
408 Passes 210
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
32 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.06.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 0-2 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
28.05.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 3-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİK
01.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
13.04.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 4-6 HT 2-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN

Ilves Tampere 2-2 Gnistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
2-2
AWAY Gnistan
1.38 xG 1.68
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 17
327 Passes 160
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 35
17 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere and Gnistan couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Ilves Tampere carried 69% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 62% of the ball to Gnistan's 38%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.38 to 1.68.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gnistan led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Ilves Tampere and 2.50 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan?

Ilves Tampere 2-2 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 04/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 69%, draw 16%, Gnistan 15%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ilves Tampere) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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