Bulgaristan 0-3 İspanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 4 Sep 2025

📅04/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
11%
12.23
Draw
17%
8.11
Away
72%
1.06
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
3.17
Over 2.5
51%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.6
No
55%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
7.61
2-3 Goals
38%
2.26
4-5 Goals
24%
2.31
6+ Goals
11%
4.01
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.61 — our 27% vs market 8.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
34.5
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
3%
34.5
X/1
5%
34.5
X/2
24%
3.9
X/X
10%
15.7
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
42%
1.09
2/X
3%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
11%
Home Win
4%
+6.6pp
17%
Draw
8%
+8.5pp
72%
Away Win
88%
-15.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
28%
+20.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
72%
-20.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
34%
+11.2pp
55%
BTTS No
66%
-11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bulgaristan EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY İspanya EU Bookmakers 94%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.41/2.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.49
+35% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -19%
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
240 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 558 · 86%
10.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.1
10.2 Crosses 22.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bulgaristan
0-3
AWAY İspanya
0.10 xG 3.51
22% Ball Possession 78%
3 Total Shots 24
0 Shots on Target 12
1 Corners 6
159 Passes 753
70% Pass Accuracy 92%
3 Box Touches 55
5 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bulgaristan vs İspanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya ran out comfortable winners over Bulgaristan 3-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had İspanya as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bulgaristan had 22% of the ball to İspanya's 78%, shots finished 3-24, expected goals 0.10 to 3.51.

What was the final score of Bulgaristan vs İspanya?

Bulgaristan 0-3 İspanya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 04/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bulgaristan vs İspanya?

Before kick-off our model rated an İspanya win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Bulgaristan 11%, draw 17%, İspanya 72%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (İspanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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