Tunus 3-0 Liberya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 4 Sep 2025

📅04/09/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
75%
1.3
Draw
17%
4.81
Away
8%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.53
No
58%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
31%
X/2
3%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
2%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
75%
Home Win
73%
+2.2pp
16%
Draw
18%
-1.7pp
8%
Away Win
9%
-0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
36%
+6.5pp
58%
BTTS No
64%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tunus EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Liberya EU Bookmakers 11%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.28/0.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.27
-6% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +80%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
425 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 73%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
32.6 Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tunus
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Liberya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.56 xG 0.73
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
202 Passes 405
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Crosses 23
19.03.2025 Liberya Liberya 0-1 HT 0-1 Tunus Tunus DKE
05.09.2015 Liberya Liberya 1-0 HT 0-0 Tunus Tunus AFR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tunus
3-0
AWAY Liberya
1.92 xG 0.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
409 Passes 235
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tunus vs Liberya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tunus ran out comfortable winners over Liberya 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tunus as the likeliest winner at 75%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Tunus had 60% of the ball to Liberya's 40%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.92 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tunus and 0.50 for Liberya.

What was the final score of Tunus vs Liberya?

Tunus 3-0 Liberya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 04/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tunus vs Liberya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tunus win the most likely single outcome at about 75%, with the full match-result split Tunus 75%, draw 16%, Liberya 8%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tunus), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tunus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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