Concarneau 3-1 Chateauroux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 4 Oct 2024

Concarneau
3-1 HT 1-0
Chateauroux
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - National League 1 – 2024/2025

Concarneau vs Chateauroux Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.35
6+ Goals
8%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 34% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.74
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
15%
4.23
X/2
9%
7.35
X/X
18%
4.18
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
10%
5.93
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Concarneau v Chateauroux — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Concarneau EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.29/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.29
-18% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Concarneau vs Chateauroux Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Concarneau
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Chateauroux
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.03.2023 Chateauroux Chateauroux 4-2 HT 1-0 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
03.10.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 2-0 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
21.03.2022 Concarneau Concarneau 0-0 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
08.10.2021 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-2 HT 0-1 Concarneau Concarneau FR3
POST-MATCH Concarneau vs Chateauroux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Concarneau saw off Chateauroux 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Concarneau as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Concarneau had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Concarneau and 1.00 for Chateauroux.

What was the final score of Concarneau vs Chateauroux?

Concarneau 3-1 Chateauroux in the France - National League 1 on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Concarneau vs Chateauroux?

Before kick-off our model rated a Concarneau win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Concarneau 45%, draw 29%, Chateauroux 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Concarneau) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Concarneau) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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