Valenciennes 2-2 Villefranche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.68
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.37
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 35% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.8
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.28
X/2
10%
7.2
X/X
17%
4.15
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
10%
5.8
2/X
8%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.6pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Villefranche EU Bookmakers 29%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +2%
2.67/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.16
+90% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valenciennes
2-2
AWAY Villefranche
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Villefranche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valenciennes and Villefranche shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 33% / 27%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valenciennes had 56% of the ball to Villefranche's 44%, shots finished 9-12.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Villefranche?

Valenciennes 2-2 Villefranche in the France - National League 1 on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Villefranche?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valenciennes win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 40%, draw 33%, Villefranche 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Valenciennes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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