Taffs Well 3-3 Trefelin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
51%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
6%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
33%
-3.2pp
19%
Draw
24%
-4.6pp
51%
Away Win
43%
+7.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.4pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Taffs Well EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Trefelin EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.45/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/1.59
-14% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Taffs Well
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Trefelin
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
13.01.2024 Taffs Well Taffs Well 1-2 HT 1-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
21.10.2023 Trefelin Trefelin 1-1 HT 1-1 Taffs Well Taffs Well GALFAW
25.02.2023 Trefelin Trefelin 0-3 HT 0-1 Taffs Well Taffs Well GALFAW
06.08.2022 Trefelin Trefelin 0-5 HT 0-1 Taffs Well Taffs Well GALLK
02.08.2022 Taffs Well Taffs Well 4-2 HT 0-1 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
02.04.2022 Trefelin Trefelin 0-0 HT 0-0 Taffs Well Taffs Well GALFAW
POST-MATCH Taffs Well vs Trefelin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Taffs Well and Trefelin couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Trefelin at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Taffs Well had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Taffs Well and 0.83 for Trefelin.

What was the final score of Taffs Well vs Trefelin?

Taffs Well 3-3 Trefelin in the Wales - FAW Championship on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Taffs Well vs Trefelin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trefelin win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Taffs Well 30%, draw 19%, Trefelin 51%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Trefelin) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Trefelin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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