Notts County 3-1 Oldham Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2025

Notts County
3-1 HT 2-0
Oldham Athletic
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Notts County vs Oldham Athletic Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.75
No
55%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.25
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
19%
5.1
X/2
11%
6.39
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
16%
4.6
2/X
5%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+1.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.8pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Oldham Athletic — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Oldham Athletic EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +23%
1.39/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.43
+3% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
271 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 69%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
23.3 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6

Notts County vs Oldham Athletic Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Oldham Athletic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.01.2023 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 2-2 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İBSL
26.12.2022 Notts County Notts County 4-1 HT 4-1 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İBSL
01.01.2019 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 2-0 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
06.11.2018 Notts County Notts County 0-0 HT 0-0 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İN2
31.01.2015 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 3-0 HT 2-0 Notts County Notts County İN1
20.09.2014 Notts County Notts County 0-0 HT 0-0 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic İN1

Notts County 3-1 Oldham Athletic — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
3-1
AWAY Oldham Athletic
2.52 xG 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
319 Passes 279
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Oldham Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County saw off Oldham Athletic 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Notts County had 51% of the ball to Oldham Athletic's 49%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.52 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oldham Athletic led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Notts County and 1.33 for Oldham Athletic.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Oldham Athletic?

Notts County 3-1 Oldham Athletic in the England - 2nd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Oldham Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Notts County 43%, draw 24%, Oldham Athletic 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
4 Oct 2025
14:30 Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham Analysis →
14:30 Newport County vs Swindon Town Analysis →
17:00 Salford City vs Grimsby Town Analysis →
17:00 Barnet vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
17:00 Cambridge United vs Crawley Town Analysis →
17:00 Colchester vs Chesterfield Analysis →