Cambridge United 3-1 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.59
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.29
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
19%
4.15
X/2
7%
9.03
X/X
12%
4.91
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.45
2/2
9%
7.45
2/X
7%
16.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.48/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.69
-11% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
265 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 67%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.6 Crosses 14.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambridge United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.59 xG 0.72
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
239 Passes 343
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN1
17.08.2024 Cambridge United Cambridge United 0-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
30.01.2021 Cambridge United Cambridge United 3-1 HT 2-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
31.10.2020 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN2
02.11.2019 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
26.12.2018 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambridge United
3-1
AWAY Crawley Town
1.63 xG 1.91
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 10
103 Passes 408
52% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cambridge United vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cambridge United saw off Crawley Town 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cambridge United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cambridge United had 29% of the ball to Crawley Town's 71%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.63 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambridge United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cambridge United and 1.00 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?

Cambridge United 3-1 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambridge United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cambridge United 51%, draw 25%, Crawley Town 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cambridge United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cambridge United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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