Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.39
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.48
6+ Goals
10%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.98
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
11%
4.44
X/2
12%
6.79
X/X
17%
4.14
2/1
11%
29.0
2/2
12%
5.63
2/X
8%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+3.1pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.41/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.37
+18% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 68%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
16.3 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 1.22
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
501 Passes 180
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
14.12.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
27.01.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
07.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
01.01.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
18.09.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 1-4 HT 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
3-2
AWAY Gillingham
2.34 xG 2.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
168 Passes 204
59% Pass Accuracy 63%
17 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons edged past Gillingham 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 46% of the ball to Gillingham's 54%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 2.34 to 2.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.00 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 41%, draw 30%, Gillingham 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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