Gillingham 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
18.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.28
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
13%
5.0
X/2
18%
6.41
X/X
13%
4.36
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
8%
4.8
2/X
9%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.2pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -16%
1.29/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.19
-14% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
22.7 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.41 xG 1.36
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
167 Passes 555
66% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.12.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
27.01.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
07.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
01.01.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
18.09.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 1-4 HT 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
02.03.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 3-2 HT 2-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-0
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.71 xG 0.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 0
181 Passes 260
64% Pass Accuracy 69%
12 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Milton Keynes Dons 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Gillingham found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gillingham had 44% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 56%, shots finished 9-4, expected goals 0.71 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gillingham and 1.50 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Gillingham 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 40%, draw 28%, Milton Keynes Dons 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gillingham), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gillingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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