Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.07
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 33% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.76
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
10%
4.48
X/2
13%
7.19
X/X
14%
4.43
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
13%
5.4
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.9pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 30%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.98/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.02
+67% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
329 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 67%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
10.0 Crosses 15.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gillingham
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.37 xG 1.42
69% Ball Possession 31%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
492 Passes 163
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
31 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 2-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
01.01.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
18.09.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 1-4 HT 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
02.03.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 3-2 HT 2-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
17.10.2020 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-0 HT 1-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
21.12.2019 Gillingham Gillingham 3-1 HT 2-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
2-1
AWAY Gillingham
0.78 xG 1.93
67% Ball Possession 33%
10 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
580 Passes 219
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
19 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons nicked a narrow win over Gillingham 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Milton Keynes Dons made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 67% of the ball to Gillingham's 33%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.78 to 1.93 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gillingham.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.50 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham?

Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 40%, draw 28%, Gillingham 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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