Morecambe 0-1 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 27 Jan 2024

📅27/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.34
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.44
6+ Goals
12%
13.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 26% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.9
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
4%
13.3
X/1
13%
4.65
X/2
9%
6.66
X/X
19%
4.74
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.0
2/2
15%
4.78
2/X
6%
13.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.80/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.48
+4% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 69%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
20.5 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Colchester
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.68 xG 1.14
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
211 Passes 290
64% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Colchester Colchester 1-3 HT 0-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
23.01.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 3-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
19.12.2020 Colchester Colchester 1-2 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
11.01.2020 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
19.10.2019 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
29.12.2018 Colchester Colchester 0-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
0-1
AWAY Colchester
1.70 xG 1.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 9
295 Passes 269
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 30
24 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester squeezed past Morecambe 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Morecambe at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Morecambe had 52% of the ball to Colchester's 48%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.70 to 1.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Morecambe.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morecambe had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Morecambe and 0.50 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Colchester?

Morecambe 0-1 Colchester in the England - 2nd Division on 27/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Morecambe win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 42%, draw 29%, Colchester 29%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Morecambe) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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