Newport County 0-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2025

Newport County
0-1 HT 0-1
Swindon Town
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Newport County vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
55%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.65
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
21.8
1/X
7%
15.55
X/1
5%
9.95
X/2
19%
4.32
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
25%
2.13
2/X
7%
13.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.8 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
21%
-2.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
55%
Away Win
55%
+0.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.3pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 59%
+6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.03/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.84
+7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +62%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
232 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
16.0 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2

Newport County vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Swindon Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.10 xG 1.34
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
224 Passes 313
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.01.2025 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 1-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
14.09.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 4-0 HT 4-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
03.02.2024 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
14.10.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
04.02.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.10.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 0-1 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
0-1
AWAY Swindon Town
0.44 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
201 Passes 297
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swindon Town nicked a narrow win over Newport County 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Swindon Town as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newport County had 44% of the ball to Swindon Town's 56%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.44 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newport County and 1.83 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Swindon Town?

Newport County 0-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Newport County 19%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 55%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Swindon Town) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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